Picking up the pieces: Russia and Iran seek to limit losses in Syria

 

By James M. Dorsey

Hi and welcome. if you appreciate this type of content, consider upgrading to a paid subscription, to help ensure that independent journalism and analysis survive. Without your support this kind of hard-hitting, fact-based analysis would not be possible.

 

To watch a video version of this story or listen to an audio podcast click here. 

 

Thank you for your support and loyalty. 

 

Policymakers in Tehran and Moscow are asking who lost Syria in a tectonic rewrite of the Middle East’s geopolitical map that has ousted President Bashar al-Assad ‘s principal backers struggling to limit their losses.

Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to preempt the debate by firing Lt.  Gen. Sergei Kisel, the commander of Russian forces in Syria, as soon as the rebels broke out of their northern enclave of Idlib and captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city.

Similarly, Iran quickly contacted the rebels to prevent what one official described as “a hostile trajectory" between the two countries.

In an effort to rewrite history, Iranian officials said the Islamic Republic’s intervention in Syria intended to counter the Islamic State rather than the rebels. The officials said Iran had always favoured dialogue between the Assad regime and its opponents.

Iranian and Russian intervention in Syria prevented the rebels from toppling Mr. Al-Assad earlier.

"The main concern for Iran is whether Assad's successor will push Syria away from Tehran's orbit. That is a scenario Iran is keen to avoid,” said a second Iranian official.

The stakes are higher for Iran than for Russia. That was evident in the contrast between the ransacking of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the calm around Russia's Hmeimim Air Base and its Tartus naval facility, which Moscow leased for 49 years.

Footage from inside the embassy’s premises showed that assailants had rummaged through furniture and documents. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iranian diplomats had vacated the embassy prior to any assault.

Iran’s state TV said Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the largest, best-armed rebel group, had guaranteed there would be no disturbance to the Sayeda Zeinab and Sayeda Ruqqaya Shiite Muslim shrines in Damascus.

Even so, the fall of Mr. Al-Assad has crippled one of the Iranian defense strategy’s three pillars, forcing the Islamic Republic to rejigger its strategy and revisit its broader regional policies.

Lacking an air force and navy of any repute because of decades of US and United Nations economic sanctions, Iranian defense relied on Syria and an alliance of non-state actors, dubbed the Axis of Resistance, for its forward defense alongside its development of ballistic missiles and nuclear program.

The ousting of Mr. Al-Assad and the weakening of Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah in the recent Lebanon war have all but neutralized the alliance’s deterrence element by removing two of its main constituents from Israel’s borders.

Even starker, Iran could discover that setbacks have turned the alliance from an asset into a liability that no longer fits its purpose.

The alliance was further weakened when Iran-backed Iraqi politicians and militia officials rejected Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s request that they send reinforcements to Syria in support of Mr. Al-Assad.

Mr. Al-Assad’s overthrow ends Syria's role as a "playground for Iranian ambitions, spreading sectarianism, and stirring corruption,” said Ahmed al Shara, aka Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir.

TheThe fall of the Syrian president means that Iran and its allies will no longer be able to maintain a military presence in Syria or use the country as a major support hub for Hezbollah that is forced to move away from the Lebanese-Iranian border under a recent ceasefire agreement. fact that a popular armed insurrection toppled Mr. Al-Assad has set off alarm bells in Moscow and Tehran.

Russia has long viewed popular revolts in Ukraine and other East European nations as US-engineered efforts to destabilize Russia’s neighbourhood, while Iranians have repeatedly taken to the streets in mass anti-government protests.

Syrians protesting against China, Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and Assad regime. Credit: Freedom House

“The situation in the Islamic Republic is not comparable to Syria at all. Nevertheless, one should take note of public opinion,” said conservative Iranian politician and journalist Naser Imani.

Iranian critics removed without explanation social media postings in which they asserted that Iran had wasted resources on supporting an unpopular leader in Syria, an implicit criticism of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a friend and staunch supporter of Mr. Al-Assad.

Even so, some fear that the collapse of the Assad regime could strengthen the hand of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its hardline supporters.

IRGC members asserted that "abandoning" Mr. Al-Assad constituted a "betrayal" that would have serious consequences for Iran.

Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a younger Revolutionary Guard as saying, “We zealous youth will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers.”

For Russia, the fallout of Mr. Al-Assad’s toppling is likely to be less existential than for Iran, even if it will probably deprive Moscow of its two foremost military bases in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean and undermine its positioning as a major regional powerbroker.

The bases also allowed Russia to use Syria as a transit hub for Russian mercenaries operating in Africa.

"What Tartus meant for Russia was the ability to project maritime power and political influence relatively uncontested in the Middle East and allowed it to punch above its weight," said Fredrik Van Lokeren, a retired Belgian naval officer.

Credit: United24 Media

The rebels have yet to comment on the future of the longstanding Russian facilities from which Russian aircraft attacked the rebels as they progressed down Syria’s M5 highway towards Damascus, but already, the contrast with the ransacked Iranian embassy in Damascus could not be starker.

As Mr. Al-Assad and his family fled to Moscow, Russian state television announced that the rebels had guaranteed the security of the military bases and diplomatic missions in Syria.

The Russian foreign ministry said there was "no serious threat to them at the current time."

The rebel assurances helped soften the blow to Russian prestige. Allowing Mr. Al-Assad to leave for Moscow enabled Russia to claim that it stuck by its friends while ensuring that the former president would be limited in his ability to attempt a comeback.

In return, state-run Russian media have changed their tone. The press stopped describing the rebels as "terrorists," referring to them instead as the "armed opposition that has taken power in Syria." At the same time, the Syrian embassy in Moscow raised the opposition flag as Mr. Al-Assad set foot on Russian soil.

For Russia and Iran, the silver lining is that Hayat Tahrir appears more interested in focusing on Syria’s rehabilitation and reconstruction rather than retaliation. In doing so, the rebels may help Mr. Al-Assad’s backers save face while taking out one of their foremost regional assets.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.