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Saturday, July 19, 2014

P5+1,Iran unlikely to reach deal before July 20 deadline (JMD quoted on Azernews)

By Sara Rajabova
As the July 20 deadline for clinching a comprehensive deal on Tehran's long-lasting nuclear dispute is approaching, Iran and the P5+1 group is mulling on extension of negotiations.
Despite the optimism shown by some parties towards the chance of an agreement being reached, the two sides still remain at loggerheads over the main issues in the nuclear talks.
Reuters quoted Western diplomats as saying on July 16 that an announcement on the possible extension of the talks between Iran and P5+1 may come on July 18.
The officials from Iran and six countries, as well as the experts didn't rule out extending the talks as no tangible progress has been made at the ongoing nuclear negotiation.
James M. Dorsey, Senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies believes that the chances for reaching final nuclear deal before July 20 are low, but not impossible.
"The negotiators still have some tough issues to resolve. The likelihood of achieving that before July 20 is low although not impossible. The real question is whether negotiators believe the issues can be resolved. The answer to that question is a function of one's assessment of the balance of power in Iran between Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Iran's Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards," Dorsey told AzerNews.
He went on to note that if the talks fail, it can lead to harsher sanctions for certain. "The West would likely feel diplomacy has for now run its course. Otherwise, there would be every reason to continue negotiations beyond July 20," Dorsey said.
Iran and the six world powers kicked off their sixth round of talks this year in the Austrian capital, Vienna, on July 3 to discuss drafting a final nuclear accord.
The P5+1 and Iran reached an interim pact last November under which Iran won some relief from economic sanctions in return for reining in some of its nuclear activities.
Their goal is to reach a comprehensive nuclear agreement by July 20 that will lay to rest Western concerns about the Iranian program and ease all the sanctions on Tehran.
Commenting on the issue, professor of economics at U.S. Northeastern University Kamran Dadkhah also ruled out clinching a nuclear deal before the deadline.
"It is very unlikely that Iran and the P5+1 will reach a final agreement by July 20. But based on statements made by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and President Barack Obama on July 16 (when he imposed new sanctions on Russia), we can be sure that the deadline will be extended and discussions will continue," Dadkhah told AzerNews.
Noting that real progress has been made in several areas, Obama said the talks might continue beyond the deadline under the interim deal. He added that there was "more work to do."
He said the U.S. government would consult with Congress as it decided whether additional time was needed to complete nuclear talks beyond the July 20 deadline.
On the possibility of fail in talks, Dadkhah also expects new sanctions on Iran.
"Most likely there will be a combination of new sanctions and continuation of diplomacy and discussions. Because the alternative would be military action and so far President Obama has shown that he is not going to take that route," Dadkhah said.
The negotiators from Iran and P5+1 group cannot come to an agreement over the major issues that paves way to discussion on the extending the talks.
The two sides have made no announcement on any continuation of negotiation, at the same time they didn't made remarks on stopping the negotiation if talks fail.
Delay in the talks is not for the hands of neither Iran, nor the Western countries. Thus, the six world powers have made big progress to solve nuclear dispute with Iran and is very close to reach deal. Suspension of negotiations would mean to cross a line on all efforts of the sides.
On the other hand, it is also detrimental for Iran, as the country would again struggle with sanctions and experience the same economic difficulties as it was before.
Therefore, the continuation of talks and resolving the nuclear dispute will be beneficial for all.

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